“O PV é um partido limpo e atrai militantes pelo conjunto de suas propostas”, afirma João Artur Camargo
Interested in learning more about Eurasia Group and Good Judgment's joint executive education trainings and custom research? 17 November 2020 7:31 AM Democratic joy at defeating Donald Trump was partially dulled by the simultaneous diminishment of the party’s House majority. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. You must be a crank or a conspiracy theorist. He did not receive comparable levels of support among comparable demographic groups in comparable states, which is highly unusual for the presidential victor. Matt Braynard’s Voter Integrity Project estimates that 20,312 people who no longer met residency requirements cast ballots in Georgia. The victory of PD in last month's Emilia-Romagna elections stymied coalition concerns of a Lega electoral onslaught. 14 February 2020 The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 61% chance that the Republican nominee will win the United States' presidential election come November. We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. Catholics also supported Trump in higher numbers. I predict that it, too, will fail and that, come January 20, we will be celebrating Donald Trump’s second inauguration. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Stay ahead of the markets by following Pepperstone’s in-depth analysis and coverage of the 2020 US election: Trump vs Biden. By way of comparison, President Obama was comfortably reelected in 2012 with 3.5 million fewer votes than he received in 2008. Furthermore, for Trump to lose, not only did one or more of these metrics have to be wrong for the first time ever, but every single one had to be wrong, and at the very same time; not an impossible outcome, but extremely unlikely nonetheless. In the end, it was just a precaution. The upheaval could last for months. Closing Dec 31, 2020 08:01AM UTC. Ballots exceeded the number of residents by 2.5 times in some Georgia precincts. He earned the highest share of all minority votes for a Republican since 1960. M5S is in an ever-deeper crisis and even more reluctant to face elections given its continued decline in opinion polls. Here’s one of Cockburn’s, for example: how is it that Trump’s youth support dropped by three percentage points compared to 2016? “Over votes.” Pennsylvania mailed out 1.8 million ballots, but 2.5 million ballots were returned. Signal is a newsletter on international affairs published four times a week by GZERO Media, a Eurasia Group company. Got something to add? Safe is 15% or higher. In Georgia, Biden overtook Trump with 89 percent of the votes counted. Additionally, our snap elections odds remain unchanged, as we continue to project a 30% chance of early elections before the end of the year. However, tensions remain rife, as former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva (IV) party could potentially move from coalition to opposition. To say out-loud that you find the results of the 2020 presidential election odd is to invite derision. Missing votes. Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC. To questions about the appointment of Andrew Sabisky, a government adviser and self-proclaimed superforecaster who, it transpired, had previously espoused eugenicist views. People who get paid to make forecasts say there’s only a 9% chance that there will be a widely available vaccine for Covid-19 before next April. Trump grew his support among Black voters by 50 percent over 2016. The US election obviously poses our next challenge. Jean-Pierre Beugoms, superforecaster and Ph.D. candidate in history at Temple University, describes the methods he has used to predict Trump’s success. LOUD WORLD. Mark me down as a crank, then. Hello, Kevin. By Jonathon Kitson ... the US presidential election of 2016 – successful forecasters tend to start with the question that a newly arrived Martian might ask: “how often do Republicans win elections?” The answer is about half the time, and so the base rate probability for a Trump win is around 50%. Posted Nov 5, 2020 5:18 am PST In today’s Big Story podcast, as of Wednesday night, things looked relatively positive for Joe Biden’s bid for the presidency. How can our government gameplan for whatever happens in the coming months, and what are … Subscribers to Good Judgment’s Global Risks dashboard receive daily updates of the Superforecasters’ projections about the general-election results for President and control of Congress plus summaries of the key factors driving those forecasts. Open Judgment’s superforecaster team has a track record of success, having made accurate predictions about world events like the approval of the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote in 2020, Saudi Arabia’s decision to partially take its national gas company public in 2019, and the status of Russia’s food embargo against some European countries also in 2019. But he won a record low of 17 percent of counties; he only won 524 counties, as opposed to the 873 counties Obama won in 2008. Boris Johnson urged to say if he agreed with views of ‘superforecaster’ Andrew Sabisky Tue, Feb 18, 2020, 12:39 Updated: Tue, Feb 18, 2020, 19:52 Peter Walker and Kate Proctor Florida, Ohio, and Iowa each defied America’s media polls with huge wins for Trump. What do you think will happen in the year 2021? The outcomes of this election cycle will have far-reaching consequences. Trump increased his share of the national Hispanic vote by two-thirds to more than four-in-ten. The failure to match signatures on mail in ballots. Counting generally continued without the observers. First, consider some facts. 2. 8 Active Questions. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls. As of Wednesday night, things looked relatively positive for Joe Biden's bid for the presidency. This website uses cookies. The Superforecasters have raised the odds to 68% that the Conservative Party will win the largest number of seats should a snap election happen. 7. See maps and real-time presidential election results for the 2020 US election. Justice reform is a trigger, though the divisions are deep seated. Atypical voting patterns married with misses by polling and non-polling metrics should give observers pause for thought. I also think that the Trump campaign is still well within its rights to contest the tabulations.
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